Weather It Is (Off the Precipice)

Good Evening:

This afternoon I had the pleasure of hiking in the beautiful Elah Valley.  I was careful not to step into any large holes (the area is full of wildflowers, thorns, and caves).  Unfortunately, the city of Beit Shemesh is planning to add a huge number of neighborhoods on the other side of route 367 (opposite the nature reserve we were visiting),  turning one of the most prettiest areas into one large concrete block.  I suppose I wouldn't mind so much if the building were done with a preservation of green spaces, but one look at Ramat Beit Shemesh shows you that it is not to be so.  Hopefully, some of the challenges to this unbridled building will succeed.

Regardless of what we want, "the weather" will soon step off its own precipice -- right into winter.  While I can't say why this is happening -- as the calendar has spring written all over it -- it will happen.  The 850 mb temperatures are poised to start dropping this evening (from their high of about 24 C) to lows of about 2 C by Friday morning.  For most of tonight and tomorrow temperatures will drop almost a degree per hour.

From Friday morning onwards, atmospheric humidity will increase and rain should develop from the north to the south.  Temperatures at 850 mb will remain just above freezing into early next week while various waves of atmospheric energy at 500 mb move through.  There is a 50% chance of rain mixing with wet snow in the north on Shabbat  and Saturday night, and a 25% of a snow/rain mixture late Shabbat into Sunday morning in the center.

The "fly in the ointment," so to speak, is the potential for thunderstorms, which could (like the previous Friday night of the 13th of February) bring periods of heavy precipitation with mixtures of rain/graupel/snow.  The intensity could be enough to whiten the ground, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning.

When we get closer to the heavy event period, we will update the forecasts based on our high resolution models (by the way, we're the only ones creating our own high resolution forecasts), so this information will only be available here with any "degree" of accuracy.

Strong winds will occur throughout the period.

Temperatures won't begin to warm up until mid next week.

Hag Samaech,

Barry Lynn